Victory
Not because it's beautiful, but because it's readable, Arial Black is the font I've used for some Time, and size Largest. No curb appeal, it isn't attractive, but it's more legible than other fonts I've used over these, what?, going on fourteen years of +Time as once daily and now mostly daily weblog posts. Infrequently well thought out, but usually a mind dump of whatever I'm willing to share as sort of a pressure release valve, nomesane?
Like trying to run my thoughts through my brain before I let them out of my mouth, I try to be mindful of what the loosened fingers tippy-type and avoid blogging what you might use against me.
Because I'm not who or what you think.
Not going any further down into that briar patch.
Russia's aggression against Ukraine could have been avoided, but it is what it is and will be what it will be, so I've pretty much quit looking there. Right now my distress is about the war that Hamas ignited with Israel and Israel's logical response and now apparent determination to play it out once and for all despite all the well-meaning international interference to smooth things over and go back to before 7 October, that's actually cozying up to Hamas.
Distress because the war is showing both sides for what they are. The hatred is indescribable. Hamas does not want peace, their sole aim is not the welfare of Palestinian people but the destruction of Israel at any and all cost of lives and resources on both sides; and right now they are basking in having "peace loving" countries condemn Israel and press for Israel to ceasefire so Hamas can regroup and resume. Why would Israel cave in to that?
The extreme right-wing politics in Israel does not shade the truth, that peaceful accommodation was not in the beginning, is not now, and never will be possible; and they likewise want to stamp out not Hamas and Fatah but the Palestinian peoples entirely. And that's where their war is heading.
Both sides. Shall we keep tamping them down, or let them have at it?
Joshua redivivus is no joke. Every man, woman, child, and animal, destroy every living thing. All alternatives are off the table for both sides.
Plus, we're back in our own national politics in which we seem destined to finally see military parades of tanks, smart-stepping troops, and ICBMs down Constitution Avenue. Sieg.
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My other distress is having been so wrong about internationalism, the unifying benefit of economic interdependence so woven into the fabric of world civilization that war would finally be unthinkably in no one's interest. The Buicks made in China. Washer and dryer from Korea. The Korean and Japanese cars on the roads. The lovely and perfect Buick sedan I had that was made in Germany. Our Hondas that were made in the USA, and your Toyota, and our VW from Mexico. My cellphone from China, my shirts from all over the world, microwave oven from Malaysia, rollator from China, and on the phone technical advisors in India. But all ruined and set aside by the coming of nationalist politics, and singularly evil, in America and for Americans, the growing Christian Nationalism with extremist certitudes that include laws forcing all Americans to its particularist certainties. Teaching the Bible in public schools? which Bible, Catholic or Protestant? which translation? with or without the Apocrypha? teach Hebrew and Greek so as to have integrity in the teaching? what about the Holy Books of non-Christian Americans in the public schools? teach the Koran also? the abortion issue: room for pro- and anti- and teach ethics and morality in individual decision making, or legally compel everyone to one side's certainties? We are no longer and never were the ideal country that we once thought we were, nor are we headed there.
And this morning's blogpost: press Publish? or press Delete? or leave in Draft?
A FuroForty day to help draw down the fifteen pounds of body fluid I put on with indiscretely salty foods and no Lasix between last Monday morning and Friday morning. LHM.
One can tell too much, can't one!
Below, a meaningful essay that explains how my theory of international interdependence went so far awry.
RSF&PTL
T88&c
 August 12, 2024 |
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| A mask factory in Paterson, N.J. Bryan Anselm for The New York Times |
The supply chain, reconfigured
 | I cover the global economy. |
For decades, major companies have behaved as if geographic distance were almost irrelevant. A factory in China was the same as a factory in Michigan. The internet, container shipping and international trading arrangements had supposedly shrunk the globe.
No longer. The pandemic and geopolitical upheavals have exposed the risks of depending on faraway industry to make critical things like computer chips, protective gear and medicines.
I recently wrote a book on this topic, “How the World Ran Out of Everything.” I’ll use today’s newsletter to help you understand why commerce has changed — and how companies and governments are reacting.
The pandemic shock
The emergence of Covid in China ended the previous version of globalization. Quarantines shut Chinese factories at the same time that Western consumers, stuck in lockdown, ordered more manufactured goods like exercise equipment and electronic gadgets.
This combination of reduced supply and surging demand made other countries realize that they had become heavily dependent on a single nation — China — for many items, including medical supplies. Covid eventually faded from the headlines, but policymakers and business executives in the United States and Europe faced pressure to diminish their reliance on China.
A central reason for concern was the rise of geopolitical tensions. China wasn’t merely the world’s factory; it is also an autocracy that, under President Xi Jinping, has become more aggressive in asserting global influence. Xi, for instance, has been vocal about bringing Taiwan under China’s control, using force if necessary. Taiwan is the dominant manufacturer of the most advanced varieties of computer chips.
China’s allies have also become more assertive in ways that have disrupted global commerce. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine triggered sanctions on Russia, which limited Europe’s access to energy. The war reduced the flow of grains and fertilizers to Africa and Asia because Russia and Ukraine are both major sources of these goods.
In the Middle East, Houthi rebels in Yemen are firing missiles on ships headed toward the Suez Canal as an expression of solidarity with Palestinians. In response, many vessels moving between Asia and Europe are traveling the long way around Africa. That has added as much as two weeks to their journeys while lifting shipping prices.
The climate plays a role in the disruption, too. Water levels in the Panama Canal fell during the recent dry season, bringing restrictions on the number of vessels that could pass.
All these developments are forcing companies to reconfigure their supply chains.
Globalization’s next phase
The main strategy would have countries make more goods at home.
President Biden signed a law that allows for the spending of tens of billions of dollars to subsidize computer chips and electric vehicle manufacturers in the United States. Europe has joined the United States in protecting its domestic auto industry against an influx of low-priced, Chinese-made electric vehicles.
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| President Biden at the Intel Ocotillo Campus in Chandler, Ariz. Tom Brenner for The New York Times |
Wealthy nations are also sending their orders elsewhere. Vietnam has gained factory orders, and India has emerged as another alternative. As the world’s most populous nation, India might eventually develop a supply chain rivaling China’s. Walmart is now moving some production from China to India.
In the short term, Mexico is a more realistic option for companies that sell many goods in the United States. Mexico has low labor costs plus road and rail connections to American consumers. Asian companies that make parts for U.S. automakers are already setting up factories in Mexico.
The supply chain is like the electrical grid — something we take for granted, as long as the lights turn on when we flip the switch. But now we’ve endured the equivalent of a blackout, forcing us to contemplate what systems we are depending on — and how to make them more reliable.